Sunday, December 17, 2006

Science Should Not Confuse You

Most people want to understand global warming. To that end, a government agency wrote a website that answered frequently asked questions.

Here is one question, with its answer.

Is the hydrological cycle (evaporation and precipitation) changing?
Overall, land precipitation for the globe has increased by about 2% since 1900, however, precipitation changes have been spatially variable over the last century. Instrumental records show that there has been a general increase in precipitation of about 0.5-1.0%/decade over land in northern mid-high latitudes, except in parts of eastern Russia. However, a decrease of about -0.3%/decade in precipitation has occurred during the 20th century over land in sub-tropical latitudes, though this trend has weakened in recent decades. Due to the difficulty in measuring precipitation, it has been important to constrain these observations by analyzing other, related variables. The measured changes in precipitation are consistent with observed changes in streamflow, lake levels, and soil moisture (where data are available and have been analyzed).
Flesch Reading Ease 13.8 (ideal is 70)

To translate that answer, I used the principles of clear sentences.

Is the hydrological cycle (evaporation and precipitation) changing?
Globally, land precipitation has increased by about 2% since 1900. However, in that time, precipitation changes have varied spatially. For example, over most land in northern mid-high latitudes, precipitation has increased about 0.5% to 1.0% per decade. (The exceptions were parts of eastern Russia.) At the same time, over land in subtropical latitudes, precipitation has decreased by 0.3% per decade. (This trend toward decrease has weakened in recent decades.) Because precipitation is hard to measure, scientists checked these figures against observed changes in streamflow, lake levels, and soil moisture. Where scientists have gleaned and analyzed those data, the results confirmed their precipitation numbers. In general, precipitation seems to be increasing in some northern latitudes and decreasing slightly in subtropical areas.
Flesch Reading Ease 30.5 (ideal is 70)

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